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Everything Weather Podcast
A conversational, educational, & educational weather podcast about everything weather. Exploring the world of weather, now every other Monday.
Everything Weather Podcast
David's Deep Dives: Phenology, Changing Natural Cycles, & Weather
The timing of natural events like bird migration, animal hibernation, and pollen release are being significantly disrupted by climate change, with profound impacts on ecosystems and human health. Phenology is incredibly sensitive to temperature changes, making it one of the most visible indicators of our changing climate.
• Phenology is the study of cyclical natural events in plants and animals
• Warming temperatures cause many plants to flower earlier and animals to emerge sooner
• Growing seasons are lengthening as winter contracts from both ends
• Ecological mismatches occur when interacting species respond differently to climate changes
• Pollen seasons are starting earlier, lasting longer, and producing 20% more pollen than 30 years ago
• Agricultural crops face increased risk from early spring warmth followed by freezes
• Some fruit trees require specific winter chill periods that are becoming less reliable
• Invasive species often gain advantage by leafing out earlier than native plants
• Amphibians and fish show some of the most dramatic shifts in timing (up to 60-80 days)
• Citizen scientists can contribute valuable data through the Nature's Notebook program
Join Nature's Notebook to help track plant and animal life cycles in your own backyard. Download the app through iTunes or Google Play Store, or visit usanpn.org to learn more and become part of a database that now contains over 40 million records used by researchers worldwide.
Buy "Phenology" authored by Dr. Theresa Crimmins at penguinrandomhouse.com and use the promo code READMIT20 for 20% off!
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About the Everything Weather Podcast
A weekly podcast where we talk with people about the weather world, explore and discuss everything weather and the many things that connect to it, and have a little fun along the way. The podcast is hosted and produced by Kyle David, a meteorologist and digital science content producer based in New Jersey.
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Hello and welcome to the Everything Weather podcast where we talk with people about the weather world, explore and discuss everything weather and have a little fun along the way. I'm your host, kyle David, and this episode is another edition of David's Deep Dives, where we dive deep together into different weather-related topics. In this edition of David's Deep Dives, we're diving into the natural world of phenology and how the weather and climate impact it. Now, for those wondering what phenology is, I won't give too much away, but basically phenology is the study of all of the natural cycles, so think migration of birds, hibernation of animals when winter comes around, and probably the most impactful one is pollen. Now, as somebody who hates pollen, I hate it, but it was a very interesting conversation, learning more about the world of phenology and how the weather and climate impact it, because they do very much impact how these natural cycles occur. And to help us explore these connections between phenology, weather and climate, and to help us explore the connections between phenology, weather and climate, I talked with Dr Teresa Crimmins, the director of the USA National Phenology Network and an associate professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment at the University of Utah, and she's also authored a book on phenology and the impact of climate change in the natural world, basically what we're going to be talking about in the podcast. The book Phenology is out now. We'll talk about that a little bit more as we get into the deep dive, and real quick.
Speaker 1:Before we get into the deep dive, we'll have a fun section with Dr Crimmins at the beginning of the deep dive and for you, the listener, we have two fun sections again for you to play along with and have some fun while you're listening to this episode. One will come right after the On this Day in Weather History segment, which will be on the March 31st April 1st tornado outbreak in 2023, which was a prolific outbreak and we'll dive quickly into that and how impactful that was. And the other fun segment, the weather or not trivia. That'll come after some quick closing thoughts. Now, with all that said, let's get into the deep dive. So today we're excited to have Dr Teresa Crimmins. Dr Crimmins is the director for the USA National Phenology Network and an associate professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment at the University of Arizona. She's also authored a book on phenology and the impact of climate change on the natural world. Her book, phenology, is now out and available for purchase wherever you get your books from. Hi there, dr Crimmins, and welcome to the podcast.
Speaker 2:Hi, kyle, thank you so much for having me. I'm really excited to be here.
Speaker 1:Absolutely. I'm looking forward to diving deep into the world of phonology and how that connects to the weather and climate. But before we get into our deep dive, I've got one fun game for you. So we've got lightning round. We're going to do a couple of quick questions related to phonology and things that are not related to phonology, and from there we'll get into our deep dive. So, with that said, are you ready?
Speaker 2:I'm super ready. Let's do this.
Speaker 1:All right, so we'll quick tack these questions. So first up, what is your go-to midnight snack?
Speaker 2:You know I really love those flavored Snyder's pretzels. There's some that I think are like dill pickle flavor, but there's also what are the other ones? Like oh, buffalo, chicken flavor pretzels. The other ones like oh, buffalo chicken flavor pretzels.
Speaker 1:Those are. I love those. They're really good.
Speaker 2:I know there's the honey mustard one, but I've not seen the mustard, but all the other ones that are like, yeah, maybe they're good definitely a good snack.
Speaker 2:Pretzels are all around a universal snack, next up favorite insect oh, I think, I think I'm gonna have to go with butterflies, but if you bonded out just a little bit, scorpions are are really cool. I actually spend a lot of time with my 16 year old son trolling the alleyways in our neighborhood with black lights looking for scorpions, and we found five in our front yard just last night. So they aren't typically an insect, but they are awfully fun to look at.
Speaker 1:In your front yard.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I'm definitely not going out there, then I don't mess with scorpions.
Speaker 2:They're little. None of us have ever gotten stung before. Apparently they're pretty nasty because they're the little guys, and what I heard once was I'm turning this now into no longer a lightning round the size of the pinchers relative to their body size can give you an estimate, kind of an indication, of how bad the sting will be, because it's basically how much of a defense can the pinchers provide for them? And the bark scorpions, which are really pretty small they're only like an inch or two long total have pretty small pinchers relative to the length of their body, and so apparently their sting is actually pretty bad.
Speaker 2:And we've had them in our house several times, but, knock on wood, so far nobody's actually experienced it directly.
Speaker 1:Okay, so on that note, then there's a quote from I think the fourth Indiana Jones movie, where Indiana Jones says comes to scorpions, the bigger the better. Is that true, or is there some it?
Speaker 2:really has to do with the pincher size. So the ones with the really big pinchers are probably far less problematic if that rule of thumb actually applies, because you know they would pinch you and that would be their primary form of defense. And maybe the pinch is not lovely, but I think it'd be better than a sting.
Speaker 1:All right. So we're proving some Hollywood quotes and topics to be true on the podcast as well. In the phonology world, all right. Next up, do you prefer the sound of waves or a crackling fireplace?
Speaker 2:Ooh, oh, I love them both, but I think I'd have to go with waves.
Speaker 1:Okay, next up favorite flower.
Speaker 2:Oh my gosh, that's a dangerous one to ask me, because I could talk for a whole podcast just on that. But my snap answer is milkweed. Because if you look carefully at the individual flowers of milkweed, they're so intricate and complex and I don't have the terminology on the tip of my tongue to describe them. But yeah, and podcasts are notoriously not very visual, so I encourage listeners to Google what milkweed flowers look like, because they really are spectacular.
Speaker 1:And we may have a little thing at the show notes for people to follow along as they listen to the podcast pictures of all the flowers and all the different phenology things that we mentioned on the podcast. So, milkweed, that's a that's an interesting answer. All right, next up. What's one thing you could never give up?
Speaker 2:Being outside, having access to the outdoors. Honestly, I'm actually thinking deeply about this as I'm trying to write my next book, and it has a lot to do with the benefits that we receive by spending time outside, and there's been an awful lot of research on this topic, about not only physical benefits that we appreciate, like lowered heart rate and stress levels, but how our brainwaves are affected and I should edit it because I mean not just being outside, but specifically being outside in green spaces, among other living things, and it really has tremendously beneficial impact to us for our abilities to stay healthy and to sleep well, but also to think and be creative. And so, yeah, it would be very, very difficult to be separated from the outdoors for any real length of time, and my heart hurts for people that are like those that are imprisoned or just live in areas where they don't have ready access to green things.
Speaker 1:So for those that are listening, that may be a little bit younger and wondering why their parents are always telling them go outside and touch grass. There's health benefits to it.
Speaker 2:Oh, yes, touch grass is it really is like it should be right up there with you know well, there's gonna be a lot of resistance to eating five fruits and vegetables a day too, but you know, if it really is, there are a lot of. It's a formal thing now for a lot of doctors to prescribe formally time outside in nature, as you know, a prescription to help with anxiety and depression and so many other things. It really is.
Speaker 1:Touching grass is important. Absolutely is All right.
Speaker 2:Back to the lightning round. Next one up is favorite tree. Oh my gosh, that's another one that I could talk about forever. I know that's hard, but I think that it would be. Oh, I think it would be sweet gum.
Speaker 2:There's a tree called sweet gum, and I choose that for multiple reasons. One is that the leaves are these really awesome five pointed star I think they're five pointed star, maybe six, maybe there's some variability in that, but they're really cool star shaped leaves. And it's a deciduous tree, so when it turns color in the autumn, a lot of times the different leaves will turn color at different rates, and so where? A lot, whereas a lot of times the different leaves will turn color at different rates, and so, whereas a lot of trees will turn color all at once, or like the whole half of a tree will be, you know, red or orange, you can have this very mottled tree where it's orange, yellow and green all mixed together and it's such a beautiful sight, honestly. And then the Latin name for it is Liquidambar styrooflua, and I just love how that rolls off the tongue.
Speaker 1:What was the Latin name for it again?
Speaker 2:It's liquidambar styracoflua.
Speaker 1:What does that mean in Latin? I'm just curious.
Speaker 2:The Latin name liquidambar styracoflua, translates to liquid amber flowing with storax, so it has to do with the fluid moving up and down within the, basically the straws that are inside the trunk of the tree.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think I'll have to do that for our listeners. That's an interesting name, all right, next one up on the lightning round. Do you have a favorite book genre?
Speaker 2:You know, yes, I think that it would be science nonfiction. That's kind of a boring answer, honestly, but I like learning new things, so the kind of writing that I'm doing is the kind of writing that I like to read. I like to hear where I'm learning factual information, but it's being delivered by a knowledgeable individual who's also interleaving their own experiences and insights.
Speaker 1:So, yeah, so real quick, what's your favorite science nonfiction book that you've read?
Speaker 2:I think that the one that I would name off the top of my head, that I just finished reading, is called the Nature Fix, and so it's very related to what we were just talking about, because it gives you know really in-depth dive into how being outside is good for us. I could name a whole lot more, but that's what comes to mind right away.
Speaker 1:We'll have to explore that book a little bit more in the future, or at least just on my own as well. All right, next one. This one might be a little challenging for you Fields of flowers or forests of trees, which would you rather have in your backyard.
Speaker 2:I have to go with the forest of trees. I think I miss trees. So I grew up in Michigan and I've lived in Arizona for almost 25 years now and I love the Sonoran Desert. There's so much special, so much that's special about and unique about this place. But anytime that we travel back to the Midwest or really anywhere where there's trees, my eyes are just flooded with how green it is and it's like releases all this dopamine. It's just such a happy experience to reconnect with trees and I really think that's so true for people wherever they grew up. You know, if you move away, whenever you go back, it feels like home and there's an awful lot of you know experiences that are more basic, that are triggered, and so yeah, it's. And where I grew up there, it was kind of a mix of coniferous and deciduous trees, so all of them make me happy.
Speaker 1:So that kind of answers what kind of trees you like? The coniferous, and what was the other one?
Speaker 2:Deciduous, the ones where the leaves change color and fall off.
Speaker 1:Okay. I like them, all I like them all All right, so next lightning round question. Second to last one what's your favorite holiday tradition?
Speaker 2:Well, the thing that comes to mind because it stands out I think it's rather unique, actually, compared to other people I've spoken with is my family, specifically my mom, but I think she inherited this from even her parents. We make fruitcakes every Christmas and not very many people like fruitcake, but I do. When you make it homemade I think it tastes really good, and we make it with the candied fruits. I don't know if you've ever seen them at the grocery store, but they'll have them around the holiday times and they look so toxic.
Speaker 2:Honestly, they don't look natural at all. They're mostly cherries and orange peel and pineapple that has been I don't know, like totally infused with sugar water and then completely non-normal looking dyes, so they're bright red and bright green and bright yellow, and then you put that into a really sugary, eggy sweet dough and then bake it. And then we always do this a good month in advance of Christmas, because then the final step is to soak cheesecloth in peach brandy and then you wrap them in them in the cheesecloth, and then you wrap them in foil, this sticky block, you stick it in the pantry and let it just basically marinate or ferment, and then it's really good, I think or ferment, and then it's really good.
Speaker 1:I think that sounds delectable and I'm not seeing a problem with these lightning round questions designed around food, because then we get into food and, oh, my mouth is watering, as you described that.
Speaker 2:That's a good question.
Speaker 1:All right, got one more for you. This one's a weather related one. What is your ideal weather for your perfect day?
Speaker 2:Oh, you know, if you would have asked me this 25 years ago, when I lived in Michigan, I would have described for you the perfect sunny, you know, 70 degree day, maybe with like a light breeze and puffy clouds. But now that I live in Arizona and it is sunny all the time, which I am not going to complain about I really like seeing the sun as much as I do. It's the inverse. Anything with storms is so special. Even just cloud cover is so special for us when we're lucky in the summer season, July and August and sometimes September, where it'll usually start out dry and clear and hot, really hot, and then the clouds start building and we get these really big puffy clouds and then it can change within an hour it can totally transition to really intense storms. It's inches of rain will fall within, you know, an hour or less.
Speaker 2:And the roads are. Here, the roads. We don't have a lot of storm drains, mainly because it doesn't rain that much, and so instead of the roads being crowned to have the water go off of them, they're dished and for the large, and in a lot of places, the roads are the conveyance for the monsoon rain, and so you can get stuck in traffic because there can be standing waves of like three feet in the middle of intersections and just crazy lightning and winds and it's usually really intense and fairly brief, but really exciting, Really really special, honestly. So I like that, I'll take a monsoon storm any day, as long as I'm safe, as long as everybody is safe.
Speaker 1:I think that's everything. It's one thing everybody looks for when it comes to severe weather, especially monsoon storms. Appreciate it from a safe distance and a safe spot, and you may have a little bit of a weather nerd in you. Yet how do you describe those monsoon storms?
Speaker 2:I don't know if I let on. I'm married to somebody who has degrees in meteorology and climatology, so I have a lot of direct intersection with it.
Speaker 1:I love that answer. All right, that wraps up our lightning round. So let's get into the deep dive. But first I gotta ask you you in a way, I kind of ask everybody on the podcast what got them interested in the weather. I'd say it is the weather story, but for this it's the phenology stories for you. So, dr Kermans, what got you interested in everything phenology?
Speaker 2:You know it's kind of funny. I went to graduate school multiple times, mainly in ecology, and I am pretty certain I graduated without knowing what the word phenology actually meant. I didn't really intersect with it much at all. My area of study was primarily invasive species and restoration, so trying to take degraded areas and improve them ecologically, and so I kind of bumped into phenology. It bumped into me honestly.
Speaker 2:The short version is right around the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s, right about when Al Gore's movie was coming out and there was this intense beginning of a recognition of maybe climate change is actually happening, maybe this is a reality. Right around that time there was some pretty cutting edge research revealing that not only, yes, are we seeing increases in temperature globally and that they are very measurable, we're actually starting to see evidence of how that is affecting plants and animals. Starting to see evidence of how that is affecting plants and animals. And so changes in phenology is one of the earliest and most visible signs of climate change. And so there was this early research that came out of folks that were studying the globe using satellite data, remote sensing, and they were starting to document greenness is happening earlier in the spring than it used to, even just a few decades ago. And we have some really good long-term monitoring networks in other countries, like in Asia and in Europe, and researchers using those long-term records were starting to publish pretty compelling results demonstrating, yeah, we are seeing flowers flowering earlier in the year, we're seeing birds migrate earlier in the year, we're seeing birds migrate earlier in the year, and this looks like it's tied to these warmer temperatures.
Speaker 2:And there were some scientists here in the United States that were saying, oh, we don't actually have good monitoring of this here in the US. And so there was some movement to try to get a monitoring network established, and it happened to not only be at the university that I was sitting at, but the headquarters were being established in the same building where I sat and just a few doors down. And at that time I didn't have a permanent job and I did have some experience and some background in the topic, and so I just kind of tried to make myself very present to the individuals that were, that were the very first leaders for the network, and ended up, long story short, starting to work with the network. And so at that time then I started to learn what the heck phonology actually meant and why it was important, and so it really was kind of like an unintended collision.
Speaker 1:Like you said, it bumped into you rather than you bumped into it.
Speaker 2:We're in just the right place at the right time.
Speaker 1:Definitely so for those listening. I'll throw in a little context as well, because I initially at first did not know what phonology was and I did my own exploration of it and I read your book a little bit on phonology and it's a really in-depth field and there's a lot of nuance to it. A really in-depth field and there's a lot of nuance to it. But for our listeners who don't know what phenology is, can you explain a little bit what phenology is and how that connects to the natural world?
Speaker 2:Absolutely so. I really like to say we actually all do know what phenology is. We just don't recognize the word all the time. It's an old fashioned, antiquated term. I really wish we had a better synonym for it.
Speaker 2:Seasonality is kind of the best alternative that we can use. What it refers to is when stuff that happens cyclically in plants and animals are occurring in the spring, or when do the spring peepers, which are these adorable little frogs, start peeping? When do migratory animals leave and arrive? When do animals that hibernate, go into hibernation and then come back out? When do the leaves change color and fall and start to drop? And the other kind of piece of the definition that you can't really disentangle is that it has everything to do with what the local conditions have been, because it really is temperature primarily, but also moisture and sun angle and sometimes even the presence of an activity of other species that shape when these things occur. And so that is why phenology is such a fantastic indicator of how species are responding to changing climate conditions. It's because they are so darn sensitive, and so you know, if they care about what the temperature has been, then when the temperatures are warmer, they shift their activity earlier.
Speaker 1:Yeah, a lot of nuance with that. It's like you said, everybody knows what it is but they don't exactly know like the word. But there's a lot of nuance with that. It's like you said, everybody knows what it is but they don't exactly know like the word, and. But there's a lot of nuance to those cycles and stuff and, as you said, they're sensitive to the weather and climate. Can you talk a little bit more about some of those cycles and some things that may have surprised you in learning more about phonology?
Speaker 2:Yeah. So I think one thing that's definitely worth acknowledging, kind of right out of the gate, is that, just like we know, with weather, while a simple take-home story is that, yes, phenology is changing with changing climate conditions, there is still an awful lot of year-to-year variability. And so, as we see year year variability and say how early we experience warmth in the spring, for example, this spring has actually not been super anomalously warm early in much of the eastern US, unlike a lot of the most recent springs that we've had, and so, as a consequence, we aren't seeing super duper right home to mom about early activity this year, and again, that's in opposition to what we've seen in a number of recent springs. So we really do need long-term records, long-term observations collected, you know, through time, to be able to understand how much things vary from year to year and whether there is some sort. Again, the broad brush story is stuff's changing, stuff's either happening earlier now or happening later, and we see this extension, this lengthening of the growing season, because the leading edge is creeping earlier and largely the end of the season is creeping later and so therefore winter is shrinking. But it is like you said, it's nuanced.
Speaker 2:There's a lot of individualistic responses among species. Some are really advancing to a huge degree and others maybe just a little in the springtime, and others sometimes might even delay. And we're seeing a lot of complex responses, and that's where it starts to bleed into the well, what is it that the species are paying attention to? Do they need just temperature to go early in the spring, or do they actually need a series of other conditions as well? And just one example of that is some plants need to be exposed to a particular amount of chill in the winter. Cherry trees are actually a really good example of this, and if they don't have a certain amount of time and I think for cherries it's about a month below 41 degrees you know they need to park for a period of time and experience that chill.
Speaker 2:If they don't experience that whole chill, then once it starts getting warm in the spring they don't actually respond. They don't start to wake up and, you know, put on their flower buds and then open their flower buds, and so if we have a really warm winter, it doesn't matter what the spring is like. Those trees actually delay. They'll be late flowering in that year because they're still waiting around to experience sufficient chill. And so usually when that happens is that the bloom is. There's not nearly as many flowers that are produced and that open, and they come at a later date. So it is a very complicated story, truthfully, when you start to get down into what. What's happening at the different species levels and their changes even across geography is really variable too.
Speaker 1:Yeah, a lot to unpack there. I'm curious because you talked about the cherry tree and warmer winters can inhibit flowers from blooming on the tree, and we're starting to see warmer winters becoming a little bit of a trend. Maybe those colder winters aren't becoming as frequent as they once were. What are some other areas of phenology that are impacted by that, the more warm winters we see?
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, that's a really good question. So one of the things that is of concern among ecologists going forward is we might start to experience mismatches between migratory species coming from. Say, if you're in the US and you have a really warm spring, species that are migratory are typically coming from the south, but it depends on where you are in the globe. This is especially a concern among birds that are long distance migrants, so that are migrating long distances to come north. We are starting to see evidence of mismatches occurring between those birds arriving and the food sources that they require once they arrive here, and, on the other hand, the species on this end that might require pollination services or other services from those birds. And so how ecological or phenological mismatches can come about is when the two species that interact are triggered by different conditions, and if those conditions you know, if one set of conditions is changing and the other is not, then that will result in the one species experiencing a shift in the timing of their activity and maybe the other not to the same extent, and then you no longer have things happening at the same time that they used to, and so some of our best examples of that are for those long distance migratory birds, because oftentimes, if birds are migrating really far, what triggers them to initiate their migration is sun angle, so it's the length of the day which isn't being affected by climate change, because it's solely a function of where the earth is in its revolution around the sun, solely a function of where the earth is in its revolution around the sun. And so those birds, by and large, those long-distance migrants, are triggered to migrate at pretty much the same time of the year every single year, no matter, However, if they are relying upon its oftentimes insect food that they need when they arrive at their summer breeding grounds, those insects are typically cued to come out by temperature, and so if we have extra warm springs with early warmth, that trigger those insects to come out, you know, a couple weeks earlier than average, then when those migratory birds arrive, those insects may already have been, you know, emerged and started to go through their different life cycle stages, and may not be the little juicy caterpillars that the birds actually like to eat anymore.
Speaker 2:They might have already moved on to a different life cycle stage. So there are an increasing number of examples of that kind of situation that can be problematic and we're keeping an eye out. It's really hard, honestly, to capture true evidence of mismatches, just because these are hard things to track and we need a lot of monitoring and a lot of you know, a lot of eyes on the ground and a lot of sampling. So it really biological mismatches are kind of more something that everybody's worried about, but we don't have a ton of really good sense of how big of a problem it might be or might become. But that is one of the things that definitely we are trying to keep an eye on and one of the ways that you know phenology can be affected by changing temperature conditions.
Speaker 1:I'm curious, because you mentioned the mismatch, the misalignment between when animals migrate or their food sources. Is there a case where it's the opposite?
Speaker 2:Oh, that's a good question.
Speaker 2:So meta-analyses, which bring together the information that's been collected in a lot of different studies, largely reveal this pattern that plants are showing the greatest advancements in the timing of their activity, or the largest shifts, earlier or later, but it's typically earlier in the spring, and then things that eat plants are showing a slightly more muted effect, and then secondary consumers, which are animals that eat the animals that eat the plants, show largely even less of a shift, and so it's kind of the inverse of what you described, where you know the consumer would have the greatest shift and then the plant would not.
Speaker 2:However, I feel like I would want to research this further, because some of our best evidence of ecological mismatches are coming from the Arctic and the furthest north parts of the world, because that's where we're seeing the greatest shifts in temperature, the biggest trends in temperature. So everything's just the most dramatic there, and I'm thinking for sure of, I know, caribou migration is being affected, and especially caribou moms and when they have their babies, and whether the food source the plant food source that the babies rely upon, whether that's available at the time and the place where they need it, I know, is being disrupted for sure, and so now I think it's more a matter of trying to watch, to see like animals are tricky to monitor because they can move, and so would those animals recognize that their breeding ground is maybe not super appropriate anymore, given the timing in the plants, and will they shift elsewhere, physically or not? And I just don't feel like I know enough about that to tell that story super well.
Speaker 1:That's fun.
Speaker 2:How about pollen? I wonder if you were actually driving at pollen as being like another example.
Speaker 1:It was a point that I was going to mention a little bit later, but that was just more of a curious question, because you'd mentioned that there was that misalignment. I was curious if the other way of misaligning was present. So you'd mentioned that there's these misalinings between consumer and food source because of climate changing, weather patterns changing Overall, what do you see in terms of population distribution? How is that changing with changing weather patterns and climate change?
Speaker 2:Yeah, so one of the clearest effects that has been documented is that species that are more sensitive, meaning that they will advance or they'll shift the timing of their activity to a greater degree with changes in temperature, are the ones that generally are faring better, and so we see becoming more abundant on the landscape, and the species that are kind of more stubborn and don't want to advance their timing or delay it again in the fall as a consequence of warmer temperatures, are becoming a lot less common on the landscape, so that's kind of one of the biggest shifts In terms of their ranges. We typically also see this pretty clear pattern of species moving poleward, but to track their optimal conditions they largely have to shift their distribution poleward or up in elevation because of the warmer temperatures.
Speaker 1:Interesting. So it touches upon something you talked about in your book a little bit the concept of phenological plasticity or how adaptive these species are. Can you explain that a little bit more and how that might influence a species' ability to adapt to rapidly changing weather extremes or, in a broader sense, climate change?
Speaker 2:Sure, sure. So adaptation is actually something that occurs as species undergo different generations and particular genes are selected for, and so if there are conditions, there are pressures, like warmer temperatures, then in subsequent generations, the individuals that are able to tolerate the higher temperatures would be more successful at breeding, and so, therefore, the genes that they have would be selected for, and the subsequent populations should have the genes that enable them to tolerate higher temperatures. Climate change is happening fast, and, in the most cases, faster than species can undergo a lot of generations, and so, rather than really actively seeing a lot of adaptation, the responses that we're seeing is more plasticity, meaning the species' ability to just kind of tolerate the changing conditions, and so what that looks like, say, in a treat, is just can you flower earlier when it's warmer, and to what extent can you shift your flowering earlier in response to that warming? And some species seem to be more plastic and able to go with the flow, and others are maybe a little less comfortable, I guess being able to tolerate really extreme conditions, and those are the ones that, excuse me, just don't tend to do as well. And so, yeah, we are really kind of like actively testing what are the bounds, what are the bounds of tolerance ranges for different individuals and species in general?
Speaker 2:Here where I live, the saguaro cactus is really iconic and abundant. Those are the ones that everybody always draws when they think of a desert, with the arms that stick up, and we've had some really hot, hot, dry summers recently, and especially up in Phoenix. I say up because it's north of where I am in Tucson. Phoenix is actually lower elevation and hotter. It's just this big basin and it gets so hot there and the saguaros actually seem like they may be approaching the limits of some of the conditions that they can tolerate.
Speaker 2:I've only heard anecdotally, so I don't really know how truly scientifically defensible this is, but I have heard of examples of saguaros actually dropping arms up there, and it's been proposed that it is because they're just so stressed by the heat. I don't know for certain if that's really a trend or not, but for sure the plants are. They did just look like we're kind of approaching the limits of what they can tolerate, and so that's where you know the plasticity just runs up against a hard stop. And, yeah, keeping track of things is really valuable because then you can really begin to understand and pinpoint. You know what was it? Where was it where we actually crossed that threshold and can we use that information maybe in preservation or conservation activities going forward?
Speaker 1:So, going back to the cactus, rather the arms up down, well, they fall off, which is a really big deal because they're really really heavy.
Speaker 2:The squirrel cacti are like I think they weigh tons. If they fall in a car they totally flatten the car. So even an arm falling off could kill a person probably. They're huge and they're full of these horrible spines. They're very, very spiny.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and we still have a lot more to dive deep into the world of phonology, how that connects to weather and climate and how that, importantly, impacts you, the listener. So we're going to take a quick break right here, but don't go anywhere. We've still got more on this deep dive with Dr Teresa Krimitz. Keep it right here. On this day in weather history, we return to March 31st and April 1st of 2023 for the third largest tornado outbreak of all time and the largest March outbreak of severe weather. Tornado outbreak of all time and the largest March outbreak of severe weather. On the morning of March 31st, a substantial area of low pressure was developing over Nebraska. As a result, unseasonable warm and moist air surged as far north as Illinois and the Midwestern United States and cold air swept down from Canada. With the clash of warm and cold air, widespread atmospheric instability and strong wind shear, the environment over the central and eastern United States would be more than ripe for severe weather. Specifically, two areas would be highly favorable for heightened tornado activity. The first area covered southeastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois and far northeastern Missouri, while the second area covered eastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center highlighted these two areas with a rare high risk for severe weather, something not seen since 2001 and rarely ever issued. Shortly after 1 pm Central Time, discrete supercell thunderstorms had blossomed over the central United States, with some beginning to produce tornadoes. A barrage of tornadoes and severe weather would unfold in the next 24 hours, some very powerful and devastating. One such tornado occurred near the beginning of the outbreak, at approximately 2 18 pm. It tore through the Little Rock Metro area in Arkansas, causing extensive damage and dozens of injuries, as well as up to $90 million in damages.
Speaker 1:Throughout the day, numerous tornadoes and highly severe weather slammed the central and eastern United States At several points. During the outbreak, multiple tornadoes were active, with over 20 simultaneous tornado warnings being active at multiple points. The most powerful tornado of the outbreak was an EF4 tornado that occurred at 512 pm southwest of Keota, iowa. Originating from the same parent supercell that produced an earlier EF3 tornado in Ottumwa and Martinsburg, iowa, the Keota Wellman EF4 tornado quickly intensified into a large multi-vorticity tornado. The tornado narrowly missed the town of Keota, but caused significant damage nearby, flattening homes and destroying outbuildings. As it passed north of Keota, it reached its peak-intensive EF4, sweeping away a farmhouse and debarking trees. This tornado would continue northeast, leveling a three-story farmhouse, hurling vehicles thousands of feet away and laying siege to whatever was in its path. This tornado would dissipate near Amish Iowa at 5.37 pm. Its 25-minute rain of destruction spanned more than 20 miles and injured three people.
Speaker 1:Fortunately, no lives were lost with this tornado. However, the same could not be said for other tornadoes with this prolific outbreak. Of the 114 total tornadoes that occurred on March 31, six tornadoes were fatal. This included a long-tracked and intense tornado that occurred between 4.30 pm and 5.54 pm in northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. This tornado tore a 73-mile path through parts of Wynn Parkin and Terrell, arkansas, as well as Drummond and Burleson, tennessee. It claimed the lives of four people, injuring 26 others and causing over $150 million in damages across the two states. This tornado was the costliest, the second longest-tracked and the second largest of the entire outbreak.
Speaker 1:The deadliest tornado of the outbreak occurred between 11.04 pm and 12.37 am in western central Tennessee. This long-tracked, violent tornado tracked for almost 86 miles between areas just east of Memphis and areas southwest of Nashville. It tore through portions of Bethel Springs, adamsville, hooker's Bend and Hohenwald, tennessee, under the cover of darkness of the late evening. Because the tornado was nocturnal, many people were in bed and caught off guard by the tornado in the darkness. This tornado claimed the lives of nine and injured 23 others. Six lives were lost and 16 others were injured by a high-end EF3 tornado that tore through parts of southeastern Illinois and southwestern Indiana. This tornado was yet another nocturnal tornado that occurred between 8.58pm and 10.33pm, leaving a more than 40-mile path of devastation. The historic Apollo Theater in Belvedere, illinois, collapsed during a concert due to an EF-1 tornado that tracked through the town at 7.43pm, injuring 48 concertgoers and killing one.
Speaker 1:Parts of the eastern United States experienced continuous severe weather and tornado activity into April 1. This included a rare EF3 tornado that tore through Sussex County, delaware, killing one person. This tornado was the largest ever recorded in Delaware and tied for the strongest in state history. This tornado was only the second fatal tornado to ever occur in Delaware history, while not as active as the previous day, april 1, 2023 featured 31 total Wisconsin, michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, delaware and New Jersey. The 115 tornadoes that occurred on March 31st tie the record for the highest number of tornadoes from an outbreak in March. The outbreak as a whole is the third largest outbreak of tornadoes in a 24-hour period, only behind the 2011 super outbreak and the 1974 super outbreak. The March 31st through April 1st 2023 tornado outbreak killed 26 people, injured well over 210 others and caused $5.7 billion in damages in damages.
Speaker 1:Before we get back into the deep dive, here's a quick game of avoid saying the same thing as me weather edition. I will give you five weather themed categories and your job is to think of a word in that category, or related to that category, that is different from the one that I say. If you avoid thinking of the same thing I think of for all five categories, you win. Ready, let's start with name a type of weather condition. So you're walking outside. What do you see outside going on with the weather? If you said overcast skies or cloudy skies meaning fully covered clouds in the sky you are out.
Speaker 1:Next up, name a type of precipitation. So when you have water coming down from the sky, what do you have coming down? If you said grapple, you are out and grapple is not hail. So if you said hail, you are still in the running for this fun section. Next up is name a famous meteorologist. It could be somebody on television, it could be somebody in the government, a storm chaser. But if you said Ginger Z, I'm sorry you are out and shout out to Ginger Z Next up name a hot city. So think of all the cities that are out there in the United States or even just in the world that are hot all the time or most of the time. If you said Phoenix, or if you thought of Phoenix, I'm sorry you are out.
Speaker 1:Now for the last one. Name one of the four ingredients needed for thunderstorms to form. You got a 25% chance with this one. So one of the four ingredients needed for thunderstorms to form. If you said moisture, I'm sorry you are out Now. If you made it this far and you avoided saying the same thing as me, you win.
Speaker 1:Now let's get back into the deep dive. Hello and welcome back to the Everything Weather podcast. I'm your host, kyle David, and today we've been deep diving into the world of phenology and how that all connects to the weather, the climate, and how that impacts you, the listener. We've been talking with Dr Teresa Crimmins. She's the director of the USA National Phenology Network and an associate professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment at the University of Utah, and she's also authored a book on phenology which is out now and you can get on all of your platforms. We're going to be talking about your book, dr Crimmins, a little bit more about the connection between phonology, the worlds of weather and climate. But first a question that I have is how do these changes to the phonology world impact the listener, people listening, and how do the cycles of animals and plants affect the listener?
Speaker 2:There's the big picture impacts and there's ways that it can affect us directly, even in our pocketbooks. The big picture you might start to see activity in your yard earlier in the spring than you used to, or you may be raking your leaves later than you used to as things shift on a long term. But more direct impacts when we have earlier springs. We often see earlier start to the allergy season because those plants that produce the pollen that irritates nasal passages start pumping out that pollen earlier in the year. And unfortunately recent research has suggested that as we are experiencing warmer years and higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we are seeing longer pollen seasons. The seasons are starting earlier, they're extending longer and there tends to be more pollen in the air overall and we see pretty clear increases. In just the past 30 years, the amount of pollen in the air coming from wind pollinated plants is somewhere around 20% greater than it used to be and unfortunately that is a trend that looks like it's likely to continue. And then, with these changing conditions, we are seeing some significant impacts to agriculture and that takes a number of different forms. But some of our produce plants are getting hit really hard, for example. Takes a number of different forms, but some of our produce plants are getting hit really hard. For example, when we have years with really early springs, like we've had in a couple of the most recent years, if we have warmth that is significant enough to get the plants going, and then we experience a freeze event that can be devastating for some of our for our landscape plants, for sure, but also for some of the fruit crops. So, for example, there were major losses to cherries in the north in 2012, like something like 70% of the cherry crop was lost because of those sets of conditions, and we've seen similar impacts to peaches in Georgia in recent years. Apple crops, similarly. They can be devastated for those when we experience a sequence of events, and even out in California, where the conditions sometimes seem less susceptible to those kinds of events, we're seeing a lot of impacts, the kinds of impacts we seem to be experiencing out there.
Speaker 2:More is that. Again, going back to the plants that require a particular amount of chill, we're starting to now experience situations where, on a regular basis, those crops are not experiencing sufficient chill, and so that has a really problematic effect of reducing how many flowers are produced, and if you don't have flowers, then you won't have fruits, and smaller crops is bad for all of us. Researchers are now trying to experiment. Can we breed plants that don't require that chill, or are there ways that we can trick the plants into thinking that they did experience the chill, even if it wasn't cold enough? A lot of the plants that we rely upon at the grocery store are starting to be affected by changes in phenology, and if they're not experiencing yet, they're probably at risk because things are changing so quickly.
Speaker 1:And there's a lot to unpack there and explore more. But I want to talk a little bit about pollen, because that affects everybody. So you have allergies and you're an allergy sufferer, like me, you hate pollen. Or whether you just get it coated all over your car or outdoor furniture, then you got to clean it up. It's a pain. But I want to explore a little bit more what that cycle is and why do we see that. So what is the cycle with pollen? What causes pollen and how is the weather and climate changing that cycle of pollen?
Speaker 2:So the reason why plants make pollen is they're trying to reproduce. Largely, plants reproduce sexually, meaning that there are male gametes and female gametes that need to be brought together in order to achieve fertilization and then that can result in the production of a seed. So, just like with humans, there are a number of plants that produce flowers that will make really beautiful, attractive flowers that tend to be very colorful and showy and smell great. And the reason why those plants do that is because they're trying to attract a pollinator. They're trying to attract something that will help move their pollen from one flower to another and thereby achieve pollination. And those pollinators can be bees, butterflies, bats, sometimes animals like lizards, even mammals can get up inside flowers.
Speaker 2:Any plant that is producing a showy or good smelling flower is actually not the ones that are responsible for your allergies. The pollen that those plants produce is relatively large. You still can't, it's hard to see the pollen grains, but comparatively they're large and they tend to be heavy and sticky. The reasons why they're like that is because, again, the plant's trying to produce pollen grains that can stick to the pollinator and then get carried and transported to another plant, and so the wind largely doesn't pick up that pollen. It doesn't get picked up in the wind and carried around. The other strategy that a lot of plants can implement and this is more for your cone-bearing trees, like pine trees and cypress and juniper or grasses, are to rely on the wind to transport that pollen, and plants that rely on the wind have to. They just invoke this totally different strategy where they produce a whole lot of really small pollen with the thinking that the wind will pick it up, carry it on the currents and it can reach another individual plant to achieve fertilization in that way.
Speaker 2:Those are the plants that are problematic for us because they are generating so much pollen and the grains are small and so they get caught up in the wind and then they get caught up in our breathing apparatus and cause that irritation. And, yeah, it really is those plants that create the problem. And so there's certain regions even of the country where it's extra problematic. In Texas they have something called cedar fever, because there are so many cedars and cedars are wind pollinated and they just produce loads of this pollen and it just coats everything. Like you said, you just see yellow blankets on the landscape and you can see these yellow clouds moving along when those trees are releasing. That's bad. You want to stay inside and close the doors and windows when that is happening.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and to go on to your point about the cedar fever, for those listening in the Northeast, the Pine Barrens of New Jersey and those other wooded areas are huge pollinators and every time I myself drive through the Pine Barrens there are clouds of pollen that are present. And I even see clips on social media from people who are out in the world and they tap on the tree and all of a sudden there's a poof of pollen everywhere. It makes me cringe.
Speaker 2:Yeah, those are the ones you want to stay away from. Even if you don't have bad allergies, I think it's still not good to get all that up into your lungs.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's just not good. But continuing on the connection between the weather and climate and the plant side of phenology, there are other things too. For example, like my mom is a huge flower planter, she loves planting flowers at home. Growing flowers and for listeners at home who like growing flowers at home. How does the weather and climate impact growing those flowers at home? And for listeners at home who like growing flowers at home how does the weather and climate impact growing those flowers at home and other plants at home?
Speaker 2:Yeah, you've probably noticed, and if you haven't, your mom probably has. The USDA has these planting zones which give you a sense of what plants are most likely to live, be able to tolerate the conditions where you live, and it's largely a function of temperature and how much freezing occurs a location, how low the temperatures get and how long they stay low. As the temperatures have increased globally in recent decades, the USDA has actually redrawn those planting zones and shifted them north here in the US by a significant amount, because it's basically chasing those conditions northward as things have gotten warmer. If a particular plant that you want to grow in your yard is not necessarily recommended for your planting zone, it doesn't mean it won't grow, but it means that it's probably going to take some extra coddling either protection from the frost if you're bringing something from further south to the north, or probably supplemental watering and maybe shading if you're going in the inverse direction.
Speaker 2:That's something I run into all the time is our plants just get fried out here because it's too hot and even the sun is just too intense, and so increasingly, that's the kind of thing that we're all going to be running into, honestly. As it gets hotter this is the thing as it gets warmer, regardless of whether precipitation patterns change or not, evaporative demand tends to increase, meaning that the plants just are sucking more moisture, they just need access to more moisture, and that can create a lot of stress, and so that is something that we'll have to keep an eye on going forward for sure, and so that is something that we'll have to keep an eye on going forward for sure.
Speaker 1:Yeah, my mom has noticed that a little bit Some plants that we were able to grow in our backyard. It's a little more difficult now because of those changing weather and climate patterns. We've been talking about temperature change over quite some time, but there's also the precipitation side of it too. We're seeing a lot more of those extremes. We have more wetter events and then we also have these drier events where things become extremely dry and we have those on and off extremes. Now how does that impact phenological cycles with plants and animals?
Speaker 2:That's a really good question. I definitely was thinking about the impact of extreme events, because they tend to have a really outsized effect on ecosystems and individual plants and it can be any kind of extreme event. The really intense wind like derecho or tornado events clearly can strip plants of all of their leaves, which sets them back until they can replace them. Also, hard freezes can be very damaging. Again, like we talked about, they can knock back the flowers for the whole season because largely, plants don't put on new flowers if they're freeze-killed in one year.
Speaker 2:But also, yes, just the really intense rain events or very dry events all just tend to stress plants really badly and animals too. We're just really starting to unpack what the impacts are likely to be there. But anything that disrupts them from completing a life cycle in a particular year and in the case of plants, that is putting on those flowers that can then result in seed production and seeing the seeds mature. If that isn't completed, that can affect the plant's persistence going forward. I think that's still a really active area that we're keeping an eye on to see who's being affected the most and to what extent in what ways.
Speaker 1:Just for context, can you share some specific examples of certain plants or insects or animals that are being changed that you've found?
Speaker 2:I can't think of any off the top of my head. So I know, for example, some insects cannot really function very well once the temperature exceeds it's typically a max of 86 degrees. They just shut down honestly, and so if we are experiencing more and more time above that threshold, that can affect them for sure in a negative way and that can work in our favor if it's a pest insect. But if it's a beneficial insect that we're looking at for biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides in the form of pollination and other things, then that can really be a problem and have an impact on population sizes.
Speaker 1:And since we're talking a little bit about insects and stuff, there's some cases where invasive species like the lanternfly a lot of listeners know about that and the initiative've only seen like a few cases of that not as widespread as the lanternfly. But can you explain how invasive species have changed, whether they've become a little more prevalent, like cases of invasive species have become more prevalent or less prevalent with changing climate patterns and weather patterns?
Speaker 2:So typically, whether they can take advantage of changing conditions is a key ingredient to whether they are becoming more prevalent and thereby invasive. So what really defines an invasive species is a species, typically, that's been introduced from somewhere else and has some sort of mechanism or adaptation that allows it to really become abundant in a new system. And yes, those insects that you named fit that description really well. They don't have a natural predator here in the US and they have very abundant food sources and they can just run roughshod across our landscapes here.
Speaker 2:And yes, some of the research that has gone into trying to understand that more is that, especially in plants and invasive plants, one of the things that allows those individuals to be pervasive and successful is that they can out-compete the natives. They oftentimes will initiate their activity in the spring earlier than the natives will just emerge earlier. They're just willing to risk potential risk to freeze events but they'll put out their leaves sooner and when they do that they're getting advanced access to sunlight and to nutrients and available other available resources and by getting that head start they can start to really squeeze out the natives. And there are a number of shrubs in the eastern US that have really taken over eastern forests because of that kind of activity. Some of the honeysuckles and buckthorn and multiflora rose have really squeezed out a lot of the natives because they are just willing to get going earlier in the spring.
Speaker 1:Yeah, there's a lot with the insect world that's starting to change as weather and climate patterns do, and one thing I kind of want to touch upon is a little bit with your work on forecasting short-term phenology with insects and stuff, because it's not just an impact to forest, it's also an impact to agriculture. So first off, can you elaborate on how the research you're doing on insect phenologies impacting agricultural practices and what's something that you've seen in that research that the weather and climate is changing with the impact of insect phenology on agriculture?
Speaker 2:Yeah, sure. So where we fit in with the USA National Phenology Network. One of the things that we do is try to take knowledge of what are the conditions that particular species need to be exposed to in order to initiate a particular life cycle stage to be reached, and then implement that as a forecast, and so we have a number of what we call pheno forecasts that are available in real time, and they're six days out. The intention there is to give managers who are trying to control these typically problematic insects a heads up as to when the insects are going to reach a particular life cycle stage during which they are the most susceptible to control, and so, in the case of spotted lanternfly, when they emerge as adults is an important time to be able to identify them and try to really squish them and take advantage, really try to control them, and so we have a forecast that predicts in real time where those adults are being.
Speaker 2:We also have a parallel forecast for the spotted lanternfly eggs, because if you can find and destroy the eggs, then you don't so much have to worry about the adults, and so I'm looking at the forecast that's up on our website right now and we're showing that anywhere in this week there's a band basically stretching through the middle of South Carolina and Georgia all the way across to El Paso, where we have reached the conditions that, if there are spotted lanternfly eggs, right now is when we're expecting they would be hatching. So right now would be the time to control, and then, as you go north from that band, we have predictions that you're likely to reach those conditions in either one week or two weeks, or three weeks or a month or more, and so if you're someone who's trying to control that, you can consult these forecasts and plan accordingly and try to identify when you should have crews out looking and being ready to take action in an attempt to slow down the damage that these particular critters are having.
Speaker 1:Just curious, since you had mentioned your website and the forecasts that you do for the spawning night to fly eggs, what are some of those other forecasts that you have on your website for insects?
Speaker 2:Yeah, so there are quite a few. Asian longhorn beetle is a real problematic one in the east, as well as emerald ash borer, we also have bronze birch borer, bagworm, spongy moss, winter moss, pine needle scale, lilac borer so a lot of the insects, all different kinds boring insects and sucking insects, needle scales but they're all available in real time where you know if you're trying to keep track of when and where these guys are becoming likely to enter a stage where they can be most effectively controlled. You can check out these maps and a really nice thing is that if you check the map and it's not anywhere near the time when you'd need to take action but you are concerned, you might not remember to come back. You can sign up to receive email-based notifications based on your location. That'll give you the heads up when things are, say, three weeks out or two weeks out. So that may be worth checking out.
Speaker 1:We're going to link that in the show notes for our listeners. Go and check your website out more on how to get those email notifications. But we had talked a little bit earlier and I want to shift towards it the impact of agricultural cycles and how that can affect things at the store shopping for certain items. How has the climate and weather patterns changing affected the agriculture business and what are those trickle down impacts?
Speaker 2:Oh my gosh, that's a lot. There's a lot to unpack there. I feel like I mostly answered that to the best of my ability before when I talked about how the crops are being affected. Yeah, I think your question is broader, but I don't know that I can do it super justice, honestly. So, with warmer temperatures, I think it's definitely affecting which crops can be grown in which locations, and definitely the same for changes in precipitation patterns, and so I know there's a lot of research going into developing seed strains that are more tolerant and more resistant to particular drought conditions in particular, and dialing in exactly when the seeds should be planted to maximize harvest dates. And then I know there's a lot of research, too, going into trying to protect against these continually new invasive insects and pests that are problematic to the crops as well, and so it seems like also an area needing a lot of attention because it's a moving target, a very rapidly moving target and area needing a lot of attention because it's a moving target, a very rapidly moving target.
Speaker 1:And on the note of agriculture, because it's not just commercial agriculture. There's also people at home who have their own like little mini I don't want to say plantations, but their own little gardens of corn, tomatoes, cucumbers. My mom has done that in the past. She wants to get back into that now. But what do you see is the future of both commercial and home agriculture because of changing weather and climate patterns?
Speaker 2:I think that kind of going back to the changing climate zones.
Speaker 2:Wherever you are, as conditions continue to change, you will be able to grow things that in the past maybe you couldn't, things that only could grow in areas that were a little warmer will be able to put things that in the past maybe you couldn't Things that only could grow in areas that were a little warmer will be able to put things out earlier in the season.
Speaker 2:However, with that caveat that if you're in a place that experiences frost, you'll have to be real cognizant of the risk of frost. There has been some recent research that has suggested that going back to that really decimate that year in 2012, that spring that we experienced in 2012, where the cherry crops got decimated in Michigan, there was some research that projected forward that by mid-century we are likely to have the risk of that kind of event occurring in one out of every three years. So we will have the ability to grow things in new areas, but there will be a lot of risk associated with everybody because of increased variability in the freeze events and then, as well as, I think, available moisture too. And then, yeah, the associated pests are still a problem, and that's true not just for commercial ag, but for folks growing things in their own home gardens as well.
Speaker 1:It's very interesting to see all these changes happening to the insect world, the plant world, a little bit of the animal world too. And real quick, before we touch in your book on phenology and a little bit of how people can get involved with the world of phenology, what are some of the notable impacts of animals to the change in climate and weather patterns?
Speaker 2:We're definitely experiencing shifts in the timing of their activity too. The species that are exhibiting the greatest shifts, amphibians in particular, are showing huge shifts in the timing of their activity. For example, frogs largely bury themselves in the dirt over the winter or in like mud, and just go into this state of torpor where their heart rates slow way down and they then emerge in the spring as things warm back up. In some cases they're starting to emerge 60 days earlier than they used to just a few decades ago. It might be surprising to learn that fish can migrate. There are a lot of fish that migrate in the ocean to follow ocean temperature, and so they go with ocean currents. And there's this one really amazing data set where, out of the Narragansett Bay, people have tracked different species of fish and some are winter residents. Fish are summer residents in the bay, and the timing of arrival and departure for those different fish species has shifted by enormous amounts 60, 70, 80 days in some of the species as a result of changing ocean temperatures.
Speaker 2:We definitely see clear evidence of changes in the timing of migration of birds. It's more in the case of short-distance migrants, because those ones tend not to be cued so much by sun angle, it's either temperature or sometimes it's even biological cues. When they start to see things greening up, then they'll head north, further north or wherever it is that they need to go. But yeah, we see very clear evidence of a lot of shifts in a lot of animals in lockstop, really, with plants too.
Speaker 1:Very interesting and we can segue into your book about phenology and what these cycles are and how it's impacted by the climate. So, first off, what can listeners who find your book and get it learn from it? And then also for you, what's been the most rewarding and challenging part of translating all of this complex phenological data and concepts into information that people can walk away from or with.
Speaker 2:One of the hardest parts for me has been to remain open in the face of a lot of disheartening news and not to become numb because hearing numbers like frogs have shifted their emergence by 60 days or same for snakes.
Speaker 2:Actually, snakes are another one, it's just a number, and to write down that number and share it with someone else is you can just go through that motion or you could actually absorb that information and take it in and really feel some feelings, and those feelings are typically hard to contend with, honestly, and so that has been a challenge trying to stay in touch with what it is that I'm documenting and not get completely disheartened and depressed by it, but also to try to think about where there are points of hope and opportunity.
Speaker 2:That may be a really good segue for me to share, then, that the one really amazing opportunity that I can offer to folks especially if you are feeling bummed out about hearing about all these kinds of changes is that we my network, the USA National Phonology Network offers a program called Nature's Notebook, and it is a platform that anybody can use to track what's happening in plants and animals in your yard, and I have been documenting what's happening on several trees in my yard for 15 years now, and, honestly, it truly is a very pleasurable activity and brings me a lot of joy.
Speaker 2:I'm right on the cusp right now of leaves starting to come out on my desert willows, and I just noticed a bunch of flowering, a lot of buds flower buds on my lime tree, and so I keep running out to check to see if any of them have opened yet. It really is a lot of fun, and those data are part of a database that we maintain that now has over 40 million records in it, and researchers regularly tap that to better understand how things are changing and whether species are adapting, like you asked about earlier, and trying to get at basic, fundamental information that conservationists can use going forward to help us preserve the wonderful ecosystems that we have.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and to touch upon your point earlier, the issue of having long-term data. This kind of helps that and helps you understand what is going on Rain, snow, sleet, hail network that is run, and then also the MPing network that the National Weather Service does. That allows people to report on the ground what is going on in their location at that current time. And on that note, how can people find out more about Nature's Notebook, get involved with that? And then also going back to your book, how can people find your book as well?
Speaker 2:Thanks, yeah, so we are good friends with CoCoRaHS actually, and yes, you're right, we're like complementary networks. Anybody who tracks precip and other weather events through cocoras is totally a prime candidate for also tracking what's happening on their plants and animals in their yard. You can learn about Nature's Notebook on our website, which is wwwusanpnorg, or you can just simply download the Nature's Notebook app through either iTunes or the Google Play Store. The book is available for purchase through Amazon and Barnes, noble and a number of other sources. I will give you a discount code because if folks are interested in purchasing it through Penguin Random House, which is the distribution publisher, they give me a 20% off code. All right?
Speaker 1:Well, I'm sure everybody loves discounts and I really think it's a good book to buy. Again, where can people get the book and tell a little more about that discount?
Speaker 2:Sure, so you can go to either Amazon or Barnes and Noble or Books a Million, or, if you want to use that discount code, that's right. Yes, you can go to penguinrandomhousecom and then use the code READMIT20. So it's R-E-A-D-M-I-T-2-0, and that will give you 20% off.
Speaker 1:So that's READMIT20 for 20% off if you order through penguinrandomhousecom, and I encourage all the listeners to go and get that book because it really is a very interesting read on how the natural world cycles and changes and how that's being changed by climate change and weather patterns as well a little bit. So very interesting book. Highly recommend it. With that said, I've got one more question. This is our little sunset segment as we wrap up our conversation. It's an open-ended question. So are there any points that we left out in our conversation that you'd like to bring up, any myths about the phonology world that you'd like to bust while we're talking about here, or any other parting thoughts for our listeners?
Speaker 2:I think the one thing I will add is to make the clear distinction between phenology and phrenology, because oftentimes the words are confused and phrenology is a pseudoscience, where people used to feel the bumps on skulls to identify whether folks had a tendency for criminal activity.
Speaker 1:and they totally are not related Phenology, not phrenology, which I didn't know was a thing.
Speaker 2:When we'd go to Wendy's restaurants they had like old, like 1980s or 1800s newsprint on the tables. I don't know if you remember that For some reason, I think there was one of those skulls on there.
Speaker 1:I don't remember too much about Wendy's in the earlier days.
Speaker 2:I remember like I'm going to find an image and I am certain that there's. Okay, I'm certain that I remember seeing a picture of one of these like skulls on there. I don't know if I could find that, but all right, here's an example. People are like selling these tables now this is hilarious. All right, here's an example. People are like selling these tables now this is hilarious. All right, I'm going to put this in the chat. This was what was at every Wendy's restaurant when I was growing up. Let's see, if you Google like Wendy's vintage tabletop, you'll be like oh okay.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I don't remember that. I remember the plants that used to be in there.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, okay, just look up this then for phrenology, because maybe this will make more sense. It was just, they had the head, like the skull, mapped out, and if you had like different lumps, then it meant you were.
Speaker 1:Oh, so like I'm reading for the head, that's the way to characterize it actually, palm reading for the head. Yeah, palm reading is just mumbo jumbo and this sounds like mumbo jumbo.
Speaker 1:Yeah totally All right, interesting A little more that I've learned today. With that said, we'll include all of the stuff we've talked about in our conversation, including some pictures about some of the plants, animals that we've talked about, the link to your book, phenology, which is out now, again promo code READMIT20 for 20% off on that at penguinrandomhousecom, and you could also get the book at the MIT Press and a little more about the Nature's Notebook and where you could download that app as well. With that said, thank you so much, dr Crermans, for coming on and talking about the world of phonology.
Speaker 2:And thank you so much for having me, kyle, it's been a pleasure.
Speaker 1:Absolutely, dr Kermans, and for our listeners, stick around for some closing thoughts and our weather or not trivia. And this concludes our deep dive into the world of phonology and how it connects to the weather and climate. Again, thank you to Dr Crimmins for her time and help with this deep dive and personally it's been a very interesting conversation that I had with Dr Crimmins and reading her book on phonology and how the weather and climate connects to it. I thought it was really interesting because there were some tidbits in there. I don't want to reveal too much to give it away, but there was a lot of interesting connections that I myself did not think of when it came to how the weather and climate connect to phonology. And then during our conversation there were things from the phenology world how those impact us With pollen that's a very common example of how phenology affects us With invasive species, with agriculture. There are so many different things with the world of phenology that connect to the weather and climate and how they impact us and you the listener climate and how they impact us and you the listener. And if you found this a very interesting conversation, I highly recommend reading her book that just came out on phenology called Phenology. We'll have that information in the show notes for you to go and check out that book, and you can also get a discount code to save some money on that as well. Who doesn't like discounts? Now, if you have any questions for Dr Crimmins or want to hear a little bit more about her work, email everythingweatherpodcast at gmailcom for some more details on that. That's everythingweatherpodcast at gmailcom. And before we get into our last segment of whether or not, please consider sharing the podcast with anyone you know and leave a review on your favorite podcast streaming platform. It not only helps me improve the podcast and bring you even better weather content and things related to the weather, but it also helps grow the podcast and reach more weather-minded people.
Speaker 1:Now let's get into our last segment whether or not. Now let's get into our last segment weather or not. If this is your first time listening to the podcast, weather or not is a fun trivia game I play with my guests at the end of our conversations that tests their weather and non-weather related trivia. This time around, though, you are going to be the one in the hot seat playing, so I've got two weather themed and two non-wethemed multiple choice trivia questions for you to play along with. Let's see how you do this is whether or not your first question is related to hurricanes. Which of the following is not an ingredient needed for a hurricane to form? Is it A Warm ocean waters, b Low wind, shear, c Saharan dust or D abundance of moisture? I'll read those answer choices one more time Is it A warm ocean waters, b low wind, shear, c, saharan dust or D abundance of moisture? Which one of these is not an ingredient needed for a hurricane to form? And the correct answer is C Saharan dust. Saharan dust is bad for hurricane formation. They don't like dust in their system. I don't think anybody does.
Speaker 1:Anyways, next up, your next question is related to anatomy. What is the heaviest organ in the human body? Is it A the skin, b the liver, c the brain or D the heart? Again, what is the heaviest organ in the human body? Is it A the skin, b the liver, c the brain or D the heart? And time's up, the correct answer is A the skin is the heaviest organ in the human body. It's also the largest organ in the human body. All right.
Speaker 1:Next question is related to weather fronts. What is the term for a type of front formed when a cold front overtakes a warm front in a low pressure system. Is it A a convergence front, b an occluded front, c a dry line or D a shear line? Again, what is the term for a type of front formed when a cold front overtakes a warm front, specifically in a low pressure system? Is it A a convergence front, b an occluded front, c a dry line or D a shear line? Any time is up. The correct answer is B an occluded front.
Speaker 1:And we got one more question for you. This one is related to countries. Which country's national animal is a unicorn? Is it A Denmark, b New Zealand, c France or D Scotland? Again, which country's national animal is a unicorn? Is it A Denmark, b New Zealand, c France or D Scotland? And your time is up. The correct answer is D Scotland, and I think that's pretty cool. Fun fact, if you ask me, I don't think any country has a national animal like that, although since we were talking about New Zealand, I feel like they should have hobbits or something from Lord of the Rings as their national animal, maybe a Nazgul or something. Anyways, that brings us to the end of our weather, or not? Trivia and the end of this podcast episode. Thank you again to Dr Crimmins for her time on this deep dive and thank you to the listener for listening to the Everything Weather podcast, and we'll catch you on the next episode.
